The diurnal evolution of the urban heat island of Paris: a model-based case study during Summer 2006

The urban heat island (UHI) over Paris during summer 2006 was simulated using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) updated with a simple urban parametrization at a horizontal resolution of 1 km. Two integrations were performed, one with the urban land cover of Paris and another in which Paris was replaced by cropland. The focus is on a five-day clear-sky period, for which the UHI intensity reaches its maximum. The diurnal evolution of the UHI intensity was found to be adequately simulated for this five day period. The maximum difference at night in 2 m temperature between urban and rural areas stemming from the urban heating is reproduced with a relative error of less than 10%. The UHI has an ellipsoidal shape and stretches along the prevailing wind direction. The maximum UHI intensity of 6.1 K occurs at 23:00 UTC located 6 km downstream of the city centre and this largely remains during the whole night. An idealized one-column model study demonstrates that the nocturnal differential sensible heat flux, even though much smaller than its daytime value, is mainly responsible for the maximum UHI intensity. The reason for this nighttime maximum is that additional heat is only affecting a shallow layer of 150 m. An air uplift is explained by the synoptic east wind and a ramp upwind of the city centre, which leads to a considerable nocturnal adiabatic cooling over cropland. The idealized study demonstrates that the reduced vertical adiabatic cooling over the city compared to cropland induces an additional UHI build-up of 25%. The UHI and its vertical extent is affected by the boundary-layer stability, nocturnal low-level jet as well as radiative cooling. Therefore, improvements of representing these boundary-layer features in atmospheric models are important for UHI studies

Temporal variability of accumulation at Neumayer station, Antarctica, from stake array measurements and a regional atmospheric model

In this study we investigate the ability of the regional atmospheric model RACMO to represent temporal variations of Antarctic accumulation using weekly stake array measurements from Neumayer Station. The model uses ECMWF reanalyses data to force the atmospheric variables at the lateral boundaries of the model domain. Accumulation is defined as precipitation minus sublimation. Generally the model represents the synoptic situations that lead to precipitation reasonably well. The amounts of accumulation are, however, usually lower in the model than in the measurements. It cannot be distinguished whether the model underestimates precipitation or whether this effect is due to the redistribution of snow by the wind, which is not taken into account in the model, but affects the accumulation at the measuring site. Significant differences between model and measurements also occur in cases of net ablation due to wind erosion or when accumulation was due to snowdrift from southwest without precipitation observed

A new regional climate model for POLAR-CORDEX : evaluation of a 30-year hindcast with COSMO-CLM2 over Antarctica

Continent-wide climate information over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is important to obtain accurate information of present climate and reduce uncertainties of the ice sheet mass balance response and resulting global sea level rise to future climate change. In this study, the COSMO-CLM2 Regional Climate Model is applied over the AIS and adapted for the specific meteorological and climatological conditions of the region. A 30-year hindcast was performed and evaluated against observational records consisting of long-term ground-based meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, radiosoundings, satellite records, stake measurements and ice cores. Reasonable agreement regarding the surface and upper-air climate is achieved by the COSMO-CLM2 model, comparable to the performance of other state-of-the-art climate models over the AIS. Meteorological variability of the surface climate is adequately simulated, and biases in the radiation and surface mass balance are small. The presented model therefore contributes as a new member to the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment project over the AIS (POLAR-CORDEX) and the CORDEX-CORE initiative

Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

Severe thunderstorms affect more than 30 million people living along the shores of Lake Victoria (East Africa). Thousands of fishers lose their lives on the lake every year. While deadly waves are assumed to be initiated by severe wind gusts, knowledge about thunderstorms is restricted to precipitation or environmental proxies. Here we use a regional climate model run at convection-permitting resolution to simulate both precipitation and wind gusts over Lake Victoria for a historical 10-year period. In addition, a pseudo global warming simulation provides insight into the region’s future climate. In this simulation, ERA5’s initial and boundary conditions are perturbed with atmospheric changes between 1995–2025 and 2070–2100, projected by CMIP6’s ensemble mean. It was found that future decreases in both mean precipitation and wind gusts over Lake Victoria can be attributed to a weaker mean mesoscale circulation that reduces the trigger for over-lake nighttime convection and decreases the mean wind shear. However, an intensification of extremes is projected for both over-lake precipitation and wind gusts. The observed 7 %K−1 Clausius–Clapeyron extreme precipitation scaling is ascribed to increased water vapor content and a compensation of weaker mesoscale circulations and stronger thunderstorm dynamics. More frequent wind gust extremes result from higher wind shear conditions and more compound thunderstorms with both intense rainfall and severe wind gusts. Overall, our study emphasizes Lake Victoria’s modulating role in determining regional current and future extremes, in addition to changes expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation

Evaluating forecasts of the evolution of the cloudy boundary layer using diurnal composites of radar and lidar observations

Observations of boundary-layer cloud have been made using radar and lidar at Chilbolton, Hampshire, UK. These have been compared with output from 7 different global and regional models. Fifty-five cloudy days have been composited to reveal the mean diurnal variation of cloud top and base heights, cloud thickness and liquid water path of the clouds. To enable like-for-like comparison between model and observations, the observations have been averaged on to the grid of each model. The composites show a distinct diurnal cycle in observed cloud; the cloud height exhibits a sinusoidal variation throughout the day with a maximum at around 1600 and a minimum at around 0700 UTC. This diurnal cycle is captured by six of the seven models analysed, although the models generally under-predict both cloud top and cloud base heights throughout the day. The two worst performing models in terms of cloud boundaries also have biases of around a factor of two in liquid water path; these were the only two models that did not include an explicit formulation for cloud-top entrainment

An improved algorithm for polar cloud-base detection by ceilometer over the ice sheets

Optically thin ice and mixed-phase clouds play an important role in polar regions due to their effect on cloud radiative impact and precipitation. Cloud-base heights can be detected by ceilometers, low-power backscatter lidars that run continuously and therefore have the potential to provide basic cloud statistics including cloud frequency, base height and vertical structure. The standard cloud-base detection algorithms of ceilometers are designed to detect optically thick liquid-containing clouds, while the detection of thin ice clouds requires an alternative approach. This paper presents the polar threshold (PT) algorithm that was developed to be sensitive to optically thin hydrometeor layers (minimum optical depth τ ≥ 0.01). The PT algorithm detects the first hydrometeor layer in a vertical attenuated backscatter profile exceeding a predefined threshold in combination with noise reduction and averaging procedures. The optimal backscatter threshold of 3 × 10^−4 km⁻¹ sr⁻¹ for cloud-base detection near the surface was derived based on a sensitivity analysis using data from Princess Elisabeth, Antarctica and Summit, Greenland. At higher altitudes where the average noise level is higher than the backscatter threshold, the PT algorithm becomes signal-to-noise ratio driven. The algorithm defines cloudy conditions as any atmospheric profile containing a hydrometeor layer at least 90 m thick. A comparison with relative humidity measurements from radiosondes at Summit illustrates the algorithm's ability to significantly discriminate between clear-sky and cloudy conditions. Analysis of the cloud statistics derived from the PT algorithm indicates a year-round monthly mean cloud cover fraction of 72% (±10%) at Summit without a seasonal cycle. The occurrence of optically thick layers, indicating the presence of supercooled liquid water droplets, shows a seasonal cycle at Summit with a monthly mean summer peak of 40 % (±4%). The monthly mean cloud occurrence frequency in summer at Princess Elisabeth is 46% (±5%), which reduces to 12% (±2.5%) for supercooled liquid cloud layers. Our analyses furthermore illustrate the importance of optically thin hydrometeor layers located near the surface for both sites, with 87% of all detections below 500 m for Summit and 80% below 2 km for Princess Elisabeth. These results have implications for using satellite-based remotely sensed cloud observations, like CloudSat that may be insensitive for hydrometeors near the surface. The decrease of sensitivity with height, which is an inherent limitation of the ceilometer, does not have a significant impact on our results. This study highlights the potential of the PT algorithm to extract information in polar regions from various hydrometeor layers using measurements by the robust and relatively low-cost ceilometer instrument

The Impact of the African Great Lakes on the Regional Climate

Although the African Great Lakes are important regulators for the East African climate, their influence on atmospheric dynamics and the regional hydrological cycle remains poorly understood. This study aims to assess this impact by comparing a regional climate model simulation that resolves individual lakes and explicitly computes lake temperatures to a simulation without lakes. The Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling model in climate mode (COSMO-CLM) coupled to the Freshwater Lake model (FLake) and Community Land Model (CLM) is used to dynamically downscale a simulation from the African Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) to 7-km grid spacing for the period of 1999–2008. Evaluation of the model reveals good performance compared to both in situ and satellite observations, especially for spatiotemporal variability of lake surface temperatures (0.68-K bias), and precipitation (−116 mm yr−1 or 8% bias). Model integrations indicate that the four major African Great Lakes almost double the annual precipitation amounts over their surface but hardly exert any influence on precipitation beyond their shores. Except for Lake Kivu, the largest lakes also cool the annual near-surface air by −0.6 to −0.9 K on average, this time with pronounced downwind influence. The lake-induced cooling happens during daytime, when the lakes absorb incoming solar radiation and inhibit upward turbulent heat transport. At night, when this heat is released, the lakes warm the near-surface air. Furthermore, Lake Victoria has a profound influence on atmospheric dynamics and stability, as it induces circular airflow with over-lake convective inhibition during daytime and the reversed pattern at night. Overall, this study shows the added value of resolving individual lakes and realistically representing lake surface temperatures for climate studies in this region